2 bd · 1.5 ba ·
720 sqft ·
Built 1973
· Manufactured
· Active
· 122 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,190/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$157
Tax + insurance
−$50
HOA
−$560
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$250
Net cashflow
$174/mo
Annual
$2,082/yr
Cap rate
13.26%
Cash-on-cash
24.87%
DSCR
2.11
1% rule
3.98%
Cash to close
$8,372
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $30k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $174 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 57/100 on livability (#235 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
Coolidge Unified District (4442) (town): math 8% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #229 of 249 in AZ (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: HOA is 47% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 260 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 4.5% in Coolidge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Kitchen cabinets
— The cabinets are wooden and show some wear, but are not in critical condition.
Minor: Bathroom fixtures
— The fixtures are basic and could be updated for a more modern look.
Moderate: Exterior paint
— The exterior siding shows some wear and could benefit from repainting.
CashFlowRE · CFR-FQZY877YAQM85Z
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29