320 W Treehouse Ln

Round Lake, IL 60073

$199,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1996 · Townhouse · Coming Soon · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,050/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$269
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-31/mo
• Annual: $-376/yr
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.67%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-376/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (2.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $195k (2.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#323 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Round Lake CUSD 116 (suburban): math 7% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #560 of 620 in IL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Village Elementary School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,927 of 2,056 statewide, top 100%, 345 students, 0% FRL); Magee Middle School (math 8% / reading 21%, grade F, #517 of 665 statewide, top 79%, 673 students, 0% FRL); Round Lake Senior High School (math 9% / reading 13%, grade F, #522 of 693 statewide, top 76%, 2,258 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 67% district-wide (67 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 97 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.2% in Round Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.