3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,302 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 18 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,964/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,174
Tax + insurance
−$373
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$412
Net cashflow
$4/mo
Annual
$46/yr
Cap rate
6.31%
Cash-on-cash
0.07%
DSCR
1.00
1% rule
0.88%
Cash to close
$62,704
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $193k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($46/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $193k).
It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $190k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-FR9GEQCHDD12JT
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29