6631 Silverbell Dr

New Port Richey East, FL 34653

$147,900C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1974 · Manufactured · Pending · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,624/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$7
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $300/mo
• Annual: $3,603/yr
• Cap rate: 8.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.70%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $41,412

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $148k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#499 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cotee River Elementary School (math 42% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 551 students, 84% FRL); Gulf Middle School (math 34% / reading 33%, grade F, #428 of 571 statewide, top 76%, 901 students, 83% FRL); Gulf High School (math 32% / reading 34%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,465 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 48% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.3% in New Port Richey East — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.