3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,040 sqft ·
Built 1968
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 136 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,240/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$603
Tax + insurance
−$436
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$260
Net cashflow
$-59/mo
Annual
$-707/yr
Cap rate
7.69%
Cash-on-cash
4.98%
DSCR
1.22
1% rule
1.08%
Cash to close
$32,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-707/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (9.1% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#623 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
Granite City CUSD 9 (suburban): math 9% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #570 of 620 in IL (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $192/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 194 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $80k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
CashFlowRE · CFR-FSA94A8B11E3FZ
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29