2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
672 sqft ·
Built —
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 72 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$809/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$207
Tax + insurance
−$66
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$170
Net cashflow
$366/mo
Annual
$4,393/yr
Cap rate
17.41%
Cash-on-cash
39.72%
DSCR
2.77
1% rule
2.05%
Cash to close
$11,060
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($809 rent vs $40k).
It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $37k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $3k of equity ($273 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (6.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#412 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
Knox County R-I (rural): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #154 of 324 in MO (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Knox County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Knox County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (6.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.