13037 Savage River Rd

Swanton, MD 21561

$45,900A-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,449 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,091/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$241
• Tax + insurance: −$503
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $118/mo
• Annual: $1,422/yr
• Cap rate: 20.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.89%
• DSCR: 3.26
• 1% rule: 2.38%
• Cash to close: $12,852

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $46k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $46k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $45k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($317 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#465 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Garrett County Public Schools (rural): math 17% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #16 of 24 in MD (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 122 units permitted in Garrett County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Garrett County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: siding — Severe weathering and peeling
• Major: roof — Signs of wear and possible leaks
• Major: flooring — Worn and damaged
• Major: paint — Significant wear and tear
• Major: windows — Old and possibly non-functional
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No visible signs of recent maintenance