363 Caryota Ct

New Smyrna Beach, FL 32168

$425,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,508 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,996/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$774
• HOA: −$79
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$629
• Net cashflow: $-715/mo
• Annual: $-8,577/yr
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.94%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-715 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (29.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (29.5% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($419k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $299k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#474 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chisholm Elementary School (math 72% / reading 63%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 491 students, 47% FRL); New Smyrna Beach High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 1,810 students, 41% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,996/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 1139% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.