32998 Forest Knoll Dr

Sharptown, MD 19956

$314,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,301 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,723/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,647
• Tax + insurance: −$218
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-503/mo
• Annual: $-6,035/yr
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.86%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $87,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $314k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-503 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (28.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (45.1% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (45.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#336 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Laurel School District (suburban): math 15% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #25 of 26 in DE (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: North Laurel Early Learning Academy (254 students, 0% FRL); Laurel Middle School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #22 of 36 statewide, top 63%, 473 students, 0% FRL); Laurel Senior High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #32 of 40 statewide, top 85%, 747 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 58% district-wide (58 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $184k; list at $314k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.