501 Watson St

Blackshear, GA 31516

$30,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $542/mo
• Annual: $6,500/yr
• Cap rate: 27.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.38%
• DSCR: 4.44
• 1% rule: 3.17%
• Cash to close: $8,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $542 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($950 rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $28k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#154 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Pierce County (rural): math 52% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #15 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 88 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 28.0% vs local median 2.8% in Blackshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.