165 County Road 294

Jasper, TX 75951

$129,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 2023 · Manufactured · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,393/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $209/mo
• Annual: $2,512/yr
• Cap rate: 8.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.95%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,225 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Jasper ISD (town): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #734 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jasper H S (math 24% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 681 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: 308 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.8% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.