30 Matthews Dr

Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11972

$649,000A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,190 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Pending · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,043/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,403
• Tax + insurance: −$410
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,689
• Net cashflow: $2,540/mo
• Annual: $30,482/yr
• Cap rate: 10.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.77%
• DSCR: 1.75
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $181,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $649k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($30k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $649k).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($591k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $591k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #389 of 755 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Remsenburg-Speonk Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 122 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 10% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $475k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $182k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 6.4% in Remsenburg-Speonk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.