10313 Heritage Bay Blvd #1326

Heritage Bay, FL 34120

$322,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Built 2008 · Condo · Active · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,104/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,689
• Tax + insurance: −$659
• HOA: −$1,246
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,072
• Net cashflow: $439/mo
• Annual: $5,270/yr
• Cap rate: 8.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.87%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 1.59%
• Cash to close: $90,160

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $322k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $439 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $322k).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($283k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $283k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo; HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1133 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→33/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $5,104/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($94k/yr) (locally 409% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?