7412 State Highway 51

West Winfield, NY 13491

$135,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,275/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$309
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $-10/mo
• Annual: $-118/yr
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.45%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-118/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (5.5% below list).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#734 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Mount Markham Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #393 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mount Markham Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 449 students, 55% FRL); Mount Markham Middle School (math 25% / reading 42%, grade F, #503 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 304 students, 52% FRL); Mount Markham Senior High School (math 92% / reading 72%, grade A, #452 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 314 students, 48% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Otsego County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Otsego County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.