5096 Clay Whaley Rd

St. Cloud, FL 34772

$294,500F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,664 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,526/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,544
• Tax + insurance: −$491
• HOA: −$162
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-202/mo
• Annual: $-2,423/yr
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.94%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $82,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $294k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-202 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (14.2% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $253k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neptune Elementary School (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 993 students, 46% FRL); Neptune Middle School (math 49% / reading 48%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 978 students, 44% FRL); St. Cloud High School (math 32% / reading 50%, grade F, #289 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 2,264 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 879 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $43k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.0% in St. Cloud — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.