246 Mountainvale Dr

Conway, NH 03813

$125,900C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,068 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$660
• Tax + insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$700
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-15/mo
• Annual: $-175/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.50%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $35,252

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $126k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-175/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (2.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $126k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (2.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($870 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#33 in NH, #4,690 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Conway School District (rural): math 28% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #73 of 98 in NH (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Tree Elementary School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #219 of 263 statewide, top 86%, 221 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 357 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.0% in Conway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.