2801 S Michigan Ave

Joplin, MO 64804

$230,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,984 sqft · Built 1964 · Other · Active · 306 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,829/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$189
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $50/mo
• Annual: $595/yr
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.92%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($595/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (20.5% below list).
• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#318 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Joplin Schools (urban): math 30% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #231 of 324 in MO (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kelsey Norman Elem. (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #347 of 1,115 statewide, top 35%, 301 students, 58% FRL); South Middle (math 40% / reading 48%, grade D, #121 of 391 statewide, top 32%, 573 students, 47% FRL); Joplin High (math 32% / reading 46%, grade F, #287 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 2,233 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.7%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 602 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.1% in Joplin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.