5200 Columbia

Schertz, TX 78108

$248,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,758 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 185 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,010/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,301
• Tax + insurance: −$515
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-253/mo
• Annual: $-3,036/yr
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.37%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $69,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-253 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (19.0% below list).
• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#198 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Schertz-Cibolo-U City ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #152 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John A Sippel El (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 743 students, 35% FRL); Byron P Steele Ii H S (math 68% / reading 66%, grade B, #163 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 2,716 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.8% in Schertz — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.