3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
880 sqft ·
Built 1931
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 38 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,163/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$184
Tax + insurance
−$459
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$244
Net cashflow
$276/mo
Annual
$3,314/yr
Cap rate
30.39%
Cash-on-cash
86.05%
DSCR
4.83
1% rule
3.32%
Cash to close
$9,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#437 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools D.
Wichita Falls ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #585 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 231 units permitted in Wichita County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
Wichita County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.3% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 30.4% vs local median 4.7% in Wichita Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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