961 Highland Light Ln

Houston, TX 77091

$355,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,781 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,985/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,034
• Tax + insurance: −$1,348
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$627
• Net cashflow: $-3,024/mo
• Annual: $-36,286/yr
• Cap rate: 1.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.48%
• DSCR: 0.27
• 1% rule: 0.39%
• Cash to close: $215,379

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $355k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-36k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (15.9% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $299k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Williams Middle (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,623 of 1,662 statewide, top 98%, 411 students, 98% FRL); Washington B T H S (math 27% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 878 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 675 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $2,985/mo this rent would consume 101% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 3210% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?