5181 Forest Glenn Dr

Spring Hill, FL 34607

$159,900B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1991 · Manufactured · Active · 596 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,999/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $581/mo
• Annual: $6,971/yr
• Cap rate: 10.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.57%
• DSCR: 1.69
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $581 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 596 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 53% / reading 46%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 523 students, 76% FRL); Weeki Wachee High School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #284 of 667 statewide, top 43%, 1,435 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 347 active listings in the ZIP; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.4% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 596 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.