3972 Overlook Bnd #28

Sarasota, FL 34232

$165,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · Built 1973 · Townhouse · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,085/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$685
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-82/mo
• Annual: $-985/yr
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.13%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-985/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (8.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (8.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#121 in FL, #1,854 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: crime F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tuttle Elementary School (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,596 of 2,144 statewide, top 75%, 665 students, 84% FRL); Booker Middle School (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 950 students, 76% FRL); Booker High School (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 1,309 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 42% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 63% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Sarasota average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $101k; list at $165k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.