9651 Yellow Rose Ln

Aubrey, TX 76258

$869,999C

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,531 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,562
• Tax + insurance: −$1,105
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,079
• Net cashflow: $2,154/mo
• Annual: $25,846/yr
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.61%
• DSCR: 1.47
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $243,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $870k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $870k).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($792k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $792k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#332 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pilot Point ISD (town): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #303 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 491 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $870k implies a 1791% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.4% in Aubrey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.