117 Serenoa Dr

Guyton, GA 31312

$324,250D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,497 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,363/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,700
• Tax + insurance: −$540
• HOA: −$63
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-437/mo
• Annual: $-5,245/yr
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.78%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $90,790

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $324k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-437 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (27.1% below list).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $236k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#128 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Effingham County (rural): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #16 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sand Hill Elementary School (math 46% / reading 40%, grade F, #370 of 1,228 statewide, top 30%, 891 students, 46% FRL); Effingham County Middle School (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #155 of 470 statewide, top 33%, 1,064 students, 52% FRL); Effingham County High School (math 28% / reading 27%, grade F, #158 of 424 statewide, top 37%, 2,108 students, 37% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Effingham County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 463 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 836 units permitted in Effingham County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Effingham County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.