1102 Morning Spg

Timberwood Park, TX 78260

$409,900D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,020 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Pending · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,890/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax + insurance: −$488
• HOA: −$127
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $-482/mo
• Annual: $-5,778/yr
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.03%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $114,772

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-482 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (20.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (29.5% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($398k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $289k (29.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#607 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mh Specht El (math 52% / reading 56%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 802 students, 28% FRL); Spring Branch Middle (math 61% / reading 61%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 578 students, 27% FRL); Smithson Valley H S (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B, #163 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 2,332 students, 17% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 408 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.8% in Timberwood Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.