3490 Willowridge Rd Unit D

Marion, IA 52302

$133,400C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · Built 1989 · Condo · Pending · 722 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,439/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$700
• Tax + insurance: −$231
• HOA: −$273
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-67/mo
• Annual: $-804/yr
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.15%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $37,352

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $133k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-804/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (8.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $133k).
• It's been on market 722 days — a 12% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $922 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#19 in IA, #633 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Linn-Mar Community School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #44 of 289 in IA (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Linn-Mar High School (math 73% / reading 78%, grade A-, #79 of 336 statewide, top 25%, 2,271 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.4%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,023 units permitted in Linn County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Linn County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.8% in Marion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 722 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.