102 Thomas Paine Dr

Venus, TX 76084

$304,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,379 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 104 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,182/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax + insurance: −$203
• HOA: −$37
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-116/mo
• Annual: $-1,389/yr
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.63%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $85,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $305k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (28.4% below list).
• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.