3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,107 sqft ·
Built 1995
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 79 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,475/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$707
Tax + insurance
−$149
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$310
Net cashflow
$309/mo
Annual
$3,704/yr
Cap rate
9.04%
Cash-on-cash
9.81%
DSCR
1.44
1% rule
1.09%
Cash to close
$37,772
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Gray'S Creek Middle (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #215 of 475 statewide, top 46%, 1,126 students, 50% FRL); Gray'S Creek High (math 61% / reading 58%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,395 students, 44% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
8 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $67k; list at $135k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.9% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-G02D5F8SD16TF0
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29