4512 Knob Creek Rd

Brooks, KY 40109

$115,000C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,853 sqft · Built 1958 · Other · Pending · 159 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,417/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $324/mo
• Annual: $3,892/yr
• Cap rate: 9.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.09%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#277 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bullitt County (suburban): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #55 of 165 in KY (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 380 units permitted in Bullitt County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bullitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.