3 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,934 sqft ·
Built 2019
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 52 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,929/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,101
Tax + insurance
−$893
HOA
−$299
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,035
Net cashflow
$1,600/mo
Annual
$19,206/yr
Cap rate
17.88%
Cash-on-cash
41.37%
DSCR
2.84
1% rule
2.35%
Cash to close
$58,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $210k).
It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $204k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 86/100 on livability (#14 in FL, #383 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Heights Elementary School (math 74% / reading 67%, grade A-, #333 of 2,144 statewide, top 16%, 1,109 students, 38% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.3%/yr); 184 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 3.3% in Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,929/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($85k/yr) (locally 539% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-G04MZYEK7TJAQW
· Data 10 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29