Mystique Plan

Aurora, IL 60503

$489,990F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,841 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 956 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,716/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,366
• Tax + insurance: −$1,070
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$570
• Net cashflow: $-2,290/mo
• Annual: $-27,481/yr
• Cap rate: 2.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.29%
• DSCR: 0.32
• 1% rule: 0.42%
• Cash to close: $179,718

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $490k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-27k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (36.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (44.6% below list).
• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($431k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $272k (44.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $69k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $64k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#232 in IL, #4,272 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• CUSD 308 (suburban): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #179 of 620 in IL (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wolfs Crossing Elem School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #336 of 2,056 statewide, top 18%, 485 students, 0% FRL); Bednarcik Junior High School (math 39% / reading 38%, grade F, #154 of 665 statewide, top 24%, 571 students, 0% FRL); Oswego East High School (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #104 of 693 statewide, top 15%, 2,836 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 20% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,028 units permitted in Will County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Will County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$110k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 3.5% in Aurora — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.