146 Nelson St

New York, NY 11231

$3,400,000D

16 bd · 16.0 ba · 2,631 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Pending · 131 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $19,643/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$17,830
• Tax + insurance: −$2,325
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,125
• Net cashflow: $-4,637/mo
• Annual: $-55,648/yr
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.85%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $952,000

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 1-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $3.40M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-56k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-1k/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.58M (24.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.96M (42.2% below list).
• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.99M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.96M (42.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $364k of equity ($24k loan paydown + $340k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.0%/yr); 88 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $300k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$584k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $19,643/mo this rent would consume 168% of the median local household income ($140k/yr) (locally 1542% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?