54 Ray Dr

Zebulon, GA 30256

$299,500D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,571 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Pending · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,313/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,571
• Tax + insurance: −$416
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $-949/mo
• Annual: $-11,388/yr
• Cap rate: 2.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.58%
• DSCR: 0.40
• 1% rule: 0.44%
• Cash to close: $83,860

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-949 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (56.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (56.2% below list).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (56.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#463 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Pike County (rural): math 32% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #64 of 174 in GA (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 7 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $189k; list at $300k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 56% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.