3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,386 sqft ·
Built 1977
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 129 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,422/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,626
Tax + insurance
−$299
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$509
Net cashflow
$-12/mo
Annual
$-140/yr
Cap rate
6.46%
Cash-on-cash
0.61%
DSCR
1.03
1% rule
0.78%
Cash to close
$86,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-140/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (0.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (21.9% below list).
It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $242k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#23 in AL, #4,921 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Irondale Community School (math 6% / reading 32%, grade F, #478 of 627 statewide, top 76%, 450 students, 50% FRL); Irondale Middle School (math 2% / reading 35%, grade F, #195 of 257 statewide, top 76%, 467 students, 58% FRL); Shades Valley High School (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #53 of 305 statewide, top 18%, 1,200 students, 68% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $125k; list at $310k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.1% in Irondale — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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· Data 16 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29