1747 Dawson Forest Rd E

Dawsonville, GA 30534

$170,000B+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 938 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Active · 176 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,226/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $756/mo
• Annual: $9,078/yr
• Cap rate: 11.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.07%
• DSCR: 1.85
• 1% rule: 1.31%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $756 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#155 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dawson County (rural): math 40% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #30 of 174 in GA (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 573 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 887 units permitted in Dawson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dawson County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $170k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.0% in Dawsonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.