607 Via Del Mar

Vista, CA 92081

$400,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · Built 1983 · Manufactured · Active · 341 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,134/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax + insurance: −$551
• HOA: −$112
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$658
• Net cashflow: $-285/mo
• Annual: $-3,417/yr
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.05%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $112,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-285 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $350k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $313k (21.6% below list).
• It's been on market 341 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $313k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#584 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Vista Unified (suburban): math 32% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #175 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Breeze Hill Elementary (766 students, 60% FRL); Madison Middle (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #474 of 498 statewide, top 99%, 956 students, 60% FRL); Rancho Buena Vista High (math 40% / reading 65%, grade C-, #289 of 1,170 statewide, top 25%, 1,959 students, 62% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Vista Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 88 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $350k (47%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $301k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.4% in Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 341 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.