8489 Arbutus Rd

Riviera Beach, MD 21122

$465,000D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,267 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,838/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,439
• Tax + insurance: −$550
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$806
• Net cashflow: $43/mo
• Annual: $519/yr
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.40%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $130,200

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $465k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($519/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $384k (17.5% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($437k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $384k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#280 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Anne Arundel County Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #10 of 24 in MD (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Monarch Global Academy Pcs Laurel Campus (math 13% / reading 28%, grade F, #341 of 860 statewide, top 40%, 830 students, 53% FRL); Northeast Middle (math 6% / reading 32%, grade F, #155 of 225 statewide, top 70%, 882 students, 49% FRL); Northeast High (math 24% / reading 57%, grade F, #130 of 222 statewide, top 58%, 1,390 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 25% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 253 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,303 units permitted in Anne Arundel County in 2024 (299 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anne Arundel County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.