4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,454 sqft ·
Built 2019
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 86 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,155/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,232
Tax + insurance
−$178
HOA
−$17
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$453
Net cashflow
$275/mo
Annual
$3,302/yr
Cap rate
7.70%
Cash-on-cash
5.02%
DSCR
1.22
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$65,772
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (8.3% below list).
It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $216k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#80 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
St Clair County (rural): math 21% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #33 of 129 in AL (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Odenville Elementary School (436 students, 67% FRL); Odenville Middle School (math 7% / reading 51%, grade F, #134 of 257 statewide, top 53%, 570 students, 67% FRL); Saint Clair County High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 622 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 41% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 36% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St Clair County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 557 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Clair County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
9 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.7% in Odenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-G3K38JEZGEJK24
· Data 3 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29