3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,344 sqft ·
Built 1999
· Manufactured
· Active
· 105 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,250/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,358
Tax + insurance
−$210
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$472
Net cashflow
$209/mo
Annual
$2,514/yr
Cap rate
7.26%
Cash-on-cash
3.47%
DSCR
1.15
1% rule
0.87%
Cash to close
$72,520
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $259k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (13.1% below list).
It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $225k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-G3XBDA01DZ4TW2
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29