19 Francis St

Fitchburg, MA 01420

$489,000B

8 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,528 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Contingent · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,994/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,564
• Tax + insurance: −$603
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,259
• Net cashflow: $1,568/mo
• Annual: $18,814/yr
• Cap rate: 10.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.74%
• DSCR: 1.61
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $136,920

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $489k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive. Per door: $523/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $489k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($474k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $474k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#137 in MA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A-, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Fitchburg (suburban): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #282 of 302 in MA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Street Early Learning Center (math 6% / reading 19%, grade F, #891 of 938 statewide, top 95%, 564 students, 0% FRL); Memorial Middle School (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #216 of 305 statewide, top 71%, 581 students, 0% FRL); Fitchburg High (math 25% / reading 42%, grade F, #251 of 343 statewide, top 73%, 1,246 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 64% district-wide (64 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 89 active listings in the ZIP; 2,293 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (1,205 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $489k implies a 226% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $137k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.1% in Fitchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,994/mo this rent would consume 99% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1763% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.