1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
504 sqft ·
Built 1893
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 56 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$862/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$359
Tax + insurance
−$79
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$181
Net cashflow
$243/mo
Annual
$2,915/yr
Cap rate
10.55%
Cash-on-cash
15.20%
DSCR
1.68
1% rule
1.26%
Cash to close
$19,180
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $68k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($862 rent vs $68k).
It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $66k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $474 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#701 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities D-.
Alton CUSD 11 (suburban): math 12% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #544 of 620 in IL (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: West Elementary School (math 7% / reading 9%, grade F, #1,621 of 2,056 statewide, top 79%, 400 students, 0% FRL); Alton Middle School (math 10% / reading 11%, grade F, #580 of 665 statewide, top 88%, 1,241 students, 0% FRL); Alton High School (math 20% / reading 25%, grade F, #317 of 693 statewide, top 46%, 1,990 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 60% district-wide (60 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1893 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $12k; list at $68k implies a 471% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 6.4% in Alton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1893 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-G46G8GBQ71WRC4
· Data 4 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29