4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
924 sqft ·
Built 2004
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 202 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,841/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$760
Tax + insurance
−$242
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$387
Net cashflow
$453/mo
Annual
$5,430/yr
Cap rate
10.04%
Cash-on-cash
13.38%
DSCR
1.60
1% rule
1.27%
Cash to close
$40,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
It's been on market 202 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 86/100 on livability (#1 in AK, #425 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
Sitka School District (town): math 46% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #4 of 21 in AK (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Keet Gooshi Heen Elementary (math 60% / reading 51%, grade C, #30 of 156 statewide, top 19%, 274 students, 33% FRL); Blatchley Middle School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D+, #8 of 36 statewide, top 20%, 265 students, 38% FRL); Sitka High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #28 of 61 statewide, top 50%, 329 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Sitka City and Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 202 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-G48B7B89M5TQ4T
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29