2050 W State Route 89a -- #141

Cottonwood, AZ 86326

$169,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 1992 · Manufactured · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,338/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $679/mo
• Annual: $8,152/yr
• Cap rate: 11.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.23%
• DSCR: 1.77
• 1% rule: 1.38%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $679 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#7 in AZ, #2,176 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, commute A, cost of living A; Watch: employment D, amenities F.
• Cottonwood-Oak Creek Elementary District (4487) (town): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #174 of 249 in AZ (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cottonwood Community School (math 8% / reading 13%, grade F, #993 of 1,109 statewide, top 91%, 500 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 52% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 22% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cottonwood-Oak Creek Elementary District (4487) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 266 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $169k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.8% in Cottonwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,338/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 894% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate: kitchen countertops — dated and in need of updating
• Minor: bathroom fixtures — standard fixtures, could be replaced