17271 NE 37th St

Lake Kerr, FL 34488

$42,999B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 580 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 200 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $984/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$225
• Tax + insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $462/mo
• Annual: $5,542/yr
• Cap rate: 19.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.03%
• DSCR: 3.05
• 1% rule: 2.29%
• Cash to close: $12,040

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $43k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($984 rent vs $43k).
• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $38k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $297 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 5.8% in Lake Kerr — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.