1701 E Campeche Ave

Alton, TX 78573

$170,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,695 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,254/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$482
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $-383/mo
• Annual: $-4,593/yr
• Cap rate: 3.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.65%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-383 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (39.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (26.2% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (39.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,230 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Alton El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 390 students, 95% FRL); Rafael A Cantu J H (math 16% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 594 students, 91% FRL); Veterans Memorial H S (math 19% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,932 students, 81% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 625 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 10525% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.5% in Alton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.