5050 E Dean Ave

Flagstaff, AZ 86004

$131,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,297/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$687
• Tax + insurance: −$218
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$902
• Net cashflow: $2,489/mo
• Annual: $29,871/yr
• Cap rate: 29.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.44%
• DSCR: 4.62
• 1% rule: 3.28%
• Cash to close: $36,680

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $131k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($30k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $131k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $906 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#167 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime D-.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 29.1% vs local median 2.1% in Flagstaff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,297/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 1475% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.