133 Gardiner Rd

Wiscasset, ME 04578

$299,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,436 sqft · Built 1900 · Other · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,753/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$433
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-616/mo
• Annual: $-7,394/yr
• Cap rate: 3.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.83%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-616 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (36.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (41.4% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (41.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#52 in ME) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wiscasset Public Schools (rural): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #169 of 185 in ME (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 158 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lincoln County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 1.6% in Wiscasset — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.