306 N 4th Ave

Hopewell, VA 23860

$149,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,089 sqft · Built 1916 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,525/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $286/mo
• Annual: $3,432/yr
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.23%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#224 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hopewell City Public School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #129 of 131 in VA (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Patrick Copeland Elementary (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,108 statewide, top 92%, 600 students, 102% FRL); Carter G. Woodson Middle (math 22% / reading 51%, grade F, #320 of 342 statewide, top 95%, 826 students, 102% FRL); Hopewell High (math 37% / reading 72%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,136 students, 102% FRL) — zoned schools average 102% FRL vs 68% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42 units permitted in Hopewell city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hopewell County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 41% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.2% in Hopewell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.