2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,016 sqft ·
Built 1980
· Manufactured
· Active
· 37 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,855/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$409
Tax + insurance
−$66
HOA
−$700
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$390
Net cashflow
$290/mo
Annual
$3,484/yr
Cap rate
10.76%
Cash-on-cash
15.95%
DSCR
1.71
1% rule
2.38%
Cash to close
$21,840
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $76k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#647 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Conewago Valley SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #215 of 539 in PA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: New Oxford Shs (math 80% / reading 10%, grade D-, #192 of 437 statewide, top 44%, 1,249 students, 39% FRL).
Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 403 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Adams County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 2.0% in Mount Pleasant — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-G66PRG0VE6XSGR
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29