9425 Panama Rd

Hickman, NE 68372

$205,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 1946 · SingleFamily · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,976/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $282/mo
• Annual: $3,378/yr
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.89%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (3.6% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $198k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#113 in NE, #4,503 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Norris School District 160 (rural): math 53% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #20 of 111 in NE (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Norris Elementary School (554 students, 12% FRL); Norris Middle School (math 41% / reading 62%, grade C, #48 of 128 statewide, top 38%, 595 students, 12% FRL); Norris High School (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #49 of 261 statewide, top 26%, 757 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 12% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 1,940 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (895 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lancaster County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $164k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.8% in Hickman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.